Remember, this is a poll of registered voters, and so there are a large number of Hispanic voters who are on the sideline there. Over the summer, we estimated that the President was weakest in Arizona, among all of these states. Biden is up five among registered voters. Again, it is a single-state poll, and we are talking about a sub-sample of that poll, but that is the story in this particular survey.Īrizona surprised me, too. Our sample of non-voters is not particularly big in Michigan, but it is conceivable to me that the voters who are on the sidelines of politics there may be an untapped source of strength for the President. And if you narrow it even further, to people who have voted before, Biden’s lead grows even more.
It is the only state where the President does better among registered voters than likely voters. The other thing I would note about Michigan that is interesting in our sample is that we think the President is doing really well among non-voters in Michigan. I think the same story could potentially hold there. So I could imagine something like that explaining the difference, if it is real. Pennsylvania is a state that has a tradition of being friendly to establishment Democrats in the primary, like Hillary Clinton in 20, while Wisconsin voted for Bernie in the 2016 primary and Obama in 2008. That said, I could conjure up an argument about how Pennsylvania is a state where Elizabeth Warren’s style of reformist, idealistic progressivism is not likely to play as well as it would in Wisconsin. And, in general, I would suggest that people take the data collectively rather than focus on the exact order of the states. The first thing I would note is that individual state polls are going to be fairly noisy. Why might they be as close or closer than in Wisconsin, which you and others have long talked about as the most likely key swing state? Biden is up three in Pennsylvania, while Warren is tied. You have Warren losing by six in Michigan, and Biden tied. Michigan and Pennsylvania surprised me a little bit.
That would make Warren up three nationally. So, if Biden is up two in these states, I would say maybe that he is up seven nationwide. And in these states we thought the President’s approval rating was five points better than nationwide. Over the summer, we did an analysis of what we thought the President’s approval rating was in every state. What would you imagine the national numbers are if these are the numbers in the swing states you polled? The President is better positioned in the battleground states than he is nationwide, and remains really competitive in the states likeliest to decide the election, despite all that’s happened to him. What is your biggest takeaway from all of the data you collected? (Cohn and I worked together at The New Republic and remain friends.) During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed why some Biden voters dislike Warren, the odds of a Democratic upset in Texas, and whether other pollsters are making the same mistakes they did in 2016. The Times’ Nate Cohn, who oversaw the poll, wrote of Warren, “not only does she underperform her rivals, but the poll also suggests that the race could be close enough for the difference to be decisive.” Cohn also noted that the poll suggests that Trump may have a greater advantage in the Electoral College in 2020 than he did in 2016, suggesting that the President could again win the election while losing the popular vote.įor further insight into the results, I recently spoke by phone with Cohn.
Biden leads or is tied with Trump in five of the six states, while the Times/Siena poll shows Trump and Sanders running essentially even. The results contain bad news for Warren, despite her strong showing with Democratic-primary voters in Iowa against President Trump, she performs worse than Biden or Sanders, with Trump leading or tied in five of six swing states. On Monday, the New York Times and Siena College released a poll of how Donald Trump is faring against three leading Democratic Presidential opponents- Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren-in six critical swing states, all of which Trump won in 2016.
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